Points of Contexture

Thriving in the Age of Complexity - With no answers, only choices

You are hearing more and more that the current recession has bottomed out, that the economic crisis is easing as job losses slow and we are beginning to see confidence return to the marketplace.  This is good news indeed as we turn from survival and begin to look forward.

 Nevertheless, the global business environment is becoming more and more interconnected and complex.

The future will see new uncertainties, ambiguities and even more surprises.  Our world is acting as a complex system, and what we are now experiencing is just a taste of what will undoubtedly come.

An Open Letter: Leadership and Strategy in the Crisis

January 5, 2009

 

To Whom It May Concern:

 

Significant changes in your environment require an immediate strategic review to refocus your competitive advantage.  Strategy is all about future differences, creating your future, the competitive difference you can bring, and how you identify and take advantage of the resulting new opportunities.  In this economic crisis, in this critical moment, how you chose to act and respond will have far reaching impacts for you and your organization.

Now is the time for reconsidered strategy - for your organization, your business units, and your alliances and partnerships – creating precise actions aligned with that strategy, with an eye ready to see the opportunities that are clearly beginning to emerge.

While the jury is out on how long this crisis will continue, one thing is sure:  The world simply will not look nor act the same afterwards.

Strategy in the Current Crisis: Thinking and Acting in the Recession

One of the more interesting topics of recent conversation is the idea that this economic crisis really has no model or pattern that is discernable from past downturns and crises.

 

I was listening to Nassim Taleb (The Black Swan) this past Sunday morning on Fareed Zakaria's (The Post-America World) GPS show: He and the other roundtable members made some very compelling points about the unique nature of the current crisis.  And after listening to some other folks, and thinking about some recent work I have done, there are some critical new ways of thinking you need in this crisis.

The Other Side of the Board Room

A corporate board’s traditional role has been that of looking at, advising and consenting on a company’s strategic focus and growth. Sub-groups (committees) of the traditional board are usually charged with oversight on compensation, audits, compliance, etc., and are comprised of board members with experience and knowledge of those areas. Rarely, if ever, do these types of boards bother themselves with operating issues, especially those of day-to-day activities.

Relatively recent spectacular corporate failures related to financial issues, governance or both (Enron, HP, WorldCom, et al), have caused boards to become more focused and almost solely concerned with compliance, like Sarbanes Oxley, and other legal issues. At the same time, low priority (or none at all) is placed on strategic focus and growth. This approach has become so pervasive that many boards are losing key members in resignations or choosing not to stand for re-election. HP recently lost two key board members (Tom Perkins and George Keyworth), both of whom cited this very issue as one of their reasons for resigning.

Early Warning Signals: A Conversation for Exploration - Part 1

From 2005, but even more relevant today:
In the past four years (Author's note: now 6-1/2 years since September 11, 2001) we have been inundated with variations on the theme of “early warning signals”, “connecting the dots”, “hindsight” and “foresight”. We see and hear them almost daily – in newspapers, magazines, learned journals, books, television news and shows (24, anyone?).
What we really want from information, intelligence and knowledge is asymmetry. We want to know things others don’t, or at least to know things before others do. We want and need early warning signals to be able to connect the dots and provide foresight of future events and the early identification of threat.